NZ’s COVID Pivot

A few friends sent me this NYTimes article about NZ's COVID strategy pivot this week from elimination to mitigation. The gist of conversation right now is whether or not this is the right thing to do. In short, it depends on who you ask, and time will tell.

Some say the NZ government's loosened restrictions are still too severe; that the economic harm is grave; the psychological toll has been exhausted. Others say this relaxation comes too soon; that it indiscriminately endangers Māori and Pasifika peoples, who currently lag in vaccination; that we've invested so long and at great cost to change course now. 

The [few] locals I talk to overwhelmingly say it's time for a transition from elimination to mitigation, and in theory they embrace what comes with it—that NZ learn to live with COVID, loosen border restrictions, roll out and enforce strict vaccination incentives (but not requirements, the majority agree, as that would overly infringe one's freedom). To say nothing of the behavior changes and infrastructure required of such a pivot, new challenges for NZ are ahead.

Whatever side one's on, it's indisputable that the financial costs of lockdown are significant, the psychological toll is material, and, as stated in this piece, COVID's impact highlights NZ's social inequities. 

Short of expanding on all of those, which are fairly universal, I'll simply flag NZ's limited capacity of medical care. In part, that limitation allowed us to come here. A 30-40% deficiency of specialist physicians and 40% shortage of general practitioners opened a door for Lisa. Further, critical care resources here run near capacity regardless of COVID. The whole of Auckland houses 133 ICU beds, over half of which are in regular use. NZ's current outbreak of <1,000 cases, nearly all of which have been in Auckland, pushed Auckland emergency care staff and physical resources beyond capacity and revealed prickly reluctance or inability of regional hospitals to absorb the excess. Putting all of this together, NZ cannot handle a sizable outbreak. 

Say what you want of politicking and individual freedoms, a nation with such limitation requires high vaccination rates and strict border controls to mitigate infection and be able to care for its sick.

As one Kiwi said to me in our first week here, Americans don't know what it's like to control COVID, and Kiwis don't know what it's like to experience COVID. The latter is clearly changing.